Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Paul, Clinton early leaders in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

If Clinton doesn't run there's 44% support for Biden, followed by Warren at 12% and Patrick and Cuomo at 9% with no one else over 2%. If Clinton and Biden both sit it out 30% of Democrats say they don't know who they would want as their candidate with Cuomo at 23%, Warren at 22%, Patrick at 17%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 4%, Martin O'Malley at 2%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 1%.

Clinton's so strong in New Hampshire that early indications are she could take it off the board as a swing state in the general election if she runs. She leads Paul 52/41 and Rubio 52/38 in hypothetical match ups, holding a double digit lead with independents and getting double digit support from Republicans in both potential match ups.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/paul-rising-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

PPP - Ayotte facing backlash over gun vote, Hassan off to a good start

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

-While Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped in a lot of places since the election, his 52/46 spread in the state is pretty similar to what he pulled last November.

-Gay marriage has been legal for a little bit more than three years in the state now, and it is quite popular with 56% of voters supporting it to 34% who are opposed. When we asked voters how they felt about it in July of 2011 support ran 51/38, so there's been a net 9 point increase over the last couple years.

One reason for the increase in support might be that voters have found gay marriage isn't such a big deal- just 16% say its being legal has had a negative impact on their lives, and even among voters opposed to it 58% grant that it hasn't actually had any adverse effect on them.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/ayotte-faces-backlash-over-gun-vote.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Obama leads by 2 in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are consistent with what PPP's found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.

In Iowa Obama's already built up a large lead among people who participated in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney's up 56/41 with people planning to cast their ballots on election day but he'll need to win by an even wider margin than that if he's going to take the state.

Obama's leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is winning with every other age group.

In New Hampshire the candidates are tied with independents but Obama has the slight overall advantage because he's winning over 9% of Republicans while just 4% of Democrats are planning to vote for Romney. Just as in Iowa Obama's relying on strong support from women (54/45) and winning across most of the age spectrum.

Democrat Maggie Hassan is looking like the favorite to be the next Governor of New Hampshire. For the second week in a row we find her with a 4 point lead over Ovide Lamontagne- the breakdown this time is 51/47. Voters have a positive opinion of Hassan (44/39) while Lamontagne is quite unpopular (40/46). Hassan's winning 51/46 with independents and taking 11% of Republicans to Lamontagne's 5% of Democrats.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-leads-by-2-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Obama leads by 2, Hassan by 4 in NH

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48.

Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing, 49/48. They're not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47 margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama's victories in the last two debates equaled out Romney's big win the first debate- asked to say who was the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43.

Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39 advantage with them that's just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39 margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama's overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than Romney is Democrats (6%).

In the Governor's race Democrat Maggie Hassan continues to be the favorite over Republican foe Ovide Lamontagne, leading 48/44. Hassan has considerably better favorability numbers (46/40) than Lamontagne who is quite unpopular with only 41% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion.

Hassan is up 55/36 with women and has a 47/41 lead with independents. She's led all three polls we've done of the Governor's race since the general election field was set.

Two other notes from New Hampshire:

-Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 46/43, including a 40/37 lead with independents. That should put them in position to pick up a lot of seats this fall.

-Enthusiasm doesn't appear as though it will be an issue for Democrats in the state this fall. 70% of them say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots, compared to 66% of Republicans.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-narrowly-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: New Hampshire Gov race looks like a toss up, state supports gay marriage and medical marijuana

The race for Governor of New Hampshire looks like a toss up, with Democrats Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan both basically tied with Republican front runner Ovide Lamontagne.

The only thing in the poll that looks like a safe bet is that Lamontagne will be the Republican nominee. He has a 53-13 lead in the primary over challenger Kevin Smith. Lamontagne has expanded his lead even further after leading Smith 40-12 when we tested their match up in January. Lamontagne's benefiting especially from his strength with the right, leading 64-9 with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.'

There's a lot less clarity on the Democratic side. Maggie Hassan leads Jackie Cilley 23-20 but the main story is that 57% of voters are undecided. That contest looks pretty wide open. The uncertainty is largely a function of Hassan and Cilley's anonymity at this point. Hassan has only 35% name recognition with Democratic voters and Cilley's is 33%.

Both of the Democratic candidates are locked in a tight race with Lamontagne for the general election. Lamontagne leads Hassan 40-39 and he's dead even with Cilley at 38%. In both of those match ups only 14-15% of Republicans are undecided, while 21-24% of Democrats are so there's reason to think that once the Democratic candidates become better known their party will get around them and they'll have a small advantage.

On the off chance that Smith won the Republican nomination both of the Democrats would start out with a modest advantage. Hassan leads him 37-31 and Cilley has a 37-32 advantage.

Other notes from our New Hampshire poll:

-One thing that may help Democratic chances of holding the Governor's office is John Lynch's continuing popularity. 60% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 28% who disapprove. That 60% approval rating matches the highest we've found for any sitting Governor anywhere in the country.

-Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state 47-41. That's quite a shift from two years ago and could result in a large number of seats switching parties this fall.

-Support for gay marriage in New Hampshire continues to be on the rise. 57% of voters think it should be legal to 35% who think it should be illegal. That represents a six point increase in support for gay marriage compared to last July when we found support at 51/38. Democrats (85% support) and Republicans (just 21% support) are pretty far apart on this issue but as we're finding more and more independents (61% support) are a lot closer to the Democrats than the Republicans on it. 85% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples in the form of either marriage or civil unions, including 69% of Republicans.

-65% of voters support legalizing medical marijuana to 24% opposed. That includes more than 70% of Democrats and independents and even a plurality of GOP voters (46/43).

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/close-race-for-governor-of-nh.html