What Will Happen On November 4th? I'm Thinking "Perfect Storm II" For Democrats

From this moment as I write this (Saturday evening -- I need a life), the polls here in New Hampshire will be closed in just 237 hours and a few minutes.  What will happen?  Give some thoughts and offer a comment.  Here are mine...

I'm keeping to my projections of the past six months which I've repeated a few times, but which I'm firming up:  Here in New Hampshire, John Lynch will win, along with Jeanne Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, and Paul Hodes.  We'll end up with three Democratic Governor's Councilors, but maybe four -- I can't figure out for sure, but I think we'll have at least three.  We'll have 18 Democratic members of the State Senate -- it could be 19, but I'm quite sure of 18.  We'll have 262 Democratic House members -- perhaps a couple more, but I'm quite sure we'll have 262 anyway. 

Congress will turn strongly Democratic, adding at least half a dozen Democratic United States Senators and a dozen Democratic House members.   Oh, and Barack Obama will be elected President; that makes Joe Biden Vice President.  I haven't looked carefully enough at the national layout to consider his margin, but I think he'll win a bit over 300 electoral votes.  He'll win New Hampshire by 7 percent.

My projections through the past few months are not about the polls, and never have been.   I've looked at all the House and Senate districts statewide (it took over 20 hours of analysis last Spring), and considered the new voter registrations, the incredible Democratic turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, and the Democratic unity.  I've added percentages to the Democratic vote of 2006 based on the motivating factors which will get Democrats and Democrat-minded Independents to the polls on November 4th -- Iraq, health care, the economy, environmental issues like Global Warming/Climate Change, education, the need for tax reform, and other issues.   I also looked at the November 2006 vote and adjusted for a Presidential Election year.  Then I added a bit for Democrats to adjust for the relative enthusiasm of the two political parties.  Well, we'll see if I'm close.

Two years ago, on October 5th, I wrote projections that were mighty close to the actual results of the election a month later.  I thought John Lynch would win, with Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, that we'd have 3 Democrats on the Governor's Council, 14 Democrats in the State Senate, 220 Democrats in the NH House, with a Democrat House Speaker here and in Washington.  That year I said 2006 was shaping up as "The Perfect Storm" for Democrats.  It was.  This year, it's "The Perfect Storm II."

What do YOU think we'll be seeing 237 hours?

A Great American Endorses Barack Obama

It's not just that he endorsed Barack Obama for President, it's what he said about John McCain.  I'm talking, of course, about former Secretary of State Colin Powell's appearance on Meet The Press this past Sunday.

In an obviously heartfelt endorsement, General Colin Powell, without dispute a great American who has served this country well in war and peace, made a firm, clear, direct, honest, and hard-hitting endorsement of Obama.  He wasn't overly critical of John McCain -- certainly not on a personal level.  But he pointed out the continuing problems with the Republican Party of these latter days -- that they "win" by destroying others, that they go after irrelevancies like whom one is associated with so they can avoid the discussion about what really affects people and our daily lives and hopes and dreams.

Without using the words, Colin Powell was telling us that John McCain has lost his way. He's misplaced any vision about the future he had, and instead has allowed campaign consultants and other hacks make a mess of his campaign, and himself. Problem is, of course, that also shows a lack of character and a lack of leadership.

Powell also seemed chagrined with the surprise selection by McCain of Sarah Palin as Vice President. It seemed like Powell was asking McCain, "what were you thinking?"

Colin Powell would have made a fascinating President in his own right. Hopefully, a President Barack Obama will call on him to fill an important role in his administration.

Colin Powell says that among the reasons he will vote for Barack Obama on November 4th is the positive amazing message it will give to the world -- that we are ready to do things differently, and that we are willing to talk with people who we haven't have a conversation with lately. We need to do that. If we don't talk with our enemies, about the only thing left is to fight them.

Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama was a class act by a longtime Republican. Many other Republicans should take his lead.

John McCain: Beginning To Redeem Himself.

Yesterday, wrote a Blog post here in NHInsider.com titled "John McCain:  Embarrassing Himself." 

 

After repeating some positive things that I have written about John McCain in months past, I added, "But now, with his over-the-top personal attacks on Barack Obama -- and that's what they are -- he has gone into gutter politics, raising the question about whether he's really worthy of being on the same platform with Barack Obama.  He's embarrassing himself.  Sometimes American politics brings the best out in a person.  Sometimes, it brings out the worst."

 

I attributed his personal attacks to his campaign staffers -- the consultants and pollsters who hide in the background but have a lust for power and who will stop at nothing, even using a decent man -- John McCain -- in this exploitive way -- to gain power.

 

Then I suggested that "I still think John McCain is better than that.  Since he is the one responsible for his campaign, only he, in the next three or so weeks, can tell his handlers and backroom benchers to stop it, and let John McCain be John McCain.  If he did, he actually could stand a chance to win -- or at least leave this campaign with his head held high."

 

I doubt he read my Blog post, but I think he did hear others, including many American voters, who said you can't go there.  Trying to paint an opponent as a terrorist because of guilt by association, or attempting to exploit voters' fears by saying your opponent scares you, is "too risky to vote for President" -- or that he is somehow less an American because "people wonder where he came from" and "he's not one of us" isn't fair, isn't right, and it isn't ethically acceptable even in politics. 

 

BUT, it appears indeed that John McCain has decided to grab back some control of his campaign.  He's taken the microphone into his hands and has turned a page.   And for that, he should be commended. 

 

Hopefully, he'll continue to calm Sarah Palin and his campaign advisers who use less-than-acceptable tactics to go after Barack Obama.  This is America, home of diversity.  John McCain and so many other brave men and women have fought, and many have died, so that people like Barack Obama can share the stage with other people like John McCain and run for President of the United States.  

 

 We in the land of the free should feel proud about that. 

 

My respect for John McCain is being rebuilt every time he continues to say Barack Obama is a good man who, if elected as President, we  indeed should not be afraid of -- and that he'll do a good job.  That puts people above politics. 

 

In the meantime, I hope the fires haven't been so flamed that the anger and hate can't be turned back, even by John McCain.  I pray for the good work of the Secret Service.   And I wish John McCain hadn't gone that route to begin with.  Sometimes, you CAN go home again, and perhaps we'll get back to the issues. 

John McCain: Embarrassing Himself.

I have said some good things about John McCain through the years.  I have respected him as an American who served our country, and that deserves our appreciation. 

 

On April 25th of last year, during the worst moments of his run in the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, which at that time he was sputtering along -- he hardly had money in his campaign account for plane trips -- I wrote a Blog post titled "John McCain 2008 Isn't John McCain 2000." 

 

In that Blog I said, "John McCain 2008 seems off-message and off-key, and seems to be an inferior clone to his 2000 self. His campaign seems badly-exhausted rather than well-tested. He sounds like he's reaching for a message rather than on message."

 

I continued, "I watched his announcement speech in Portsmouth on Wednesday, April 25th. I was expecting the straight talk and clear idealism of McCain 2000 which motivated thousands and thousands in New Hampshire and elsewhere to get excited about this man.  Instead, I saw someone stumbling over his words. Worse, he couldn't seem to go through a sentence without reading it almost word by word. One would expect if you're giving about the most important speech of your campaign -- an announcement speech -- you'd know it fairly well before walking up to the podium. But he didn't."

 

Then I added, "But, this man is an American hero. A genuine one. He fought for us. He defended us. I wasn't a fan of the Vietnam War no more than I am of the Iraq War, but when a man or woman goes to war in answer to a decision of our government -- right or wrong -- he or she deserves respect and appreciation. He went. He fought. He suffered. Many other heroes went, and didn't come back. Fortunately, John McCain did."

And I continued, "One speech does not make a candidate or a campaign -- although one given by Barack Obama in 2004 at the Democratic National Convention certainly got some attention. So, here's hoping we'll see John McCain catch his breath and become a star again in the Republican Party.  Let's hope his campaign reinvigorates and reinvents itself. His party needs him in the debate. And the Democratic candidates need to be challenged by quality opposition as well. The election season of 2007-2008 will be all the better with John McCain as an important player, whether or not he goes all the way."

NOW FOR MY UPDATE:  Until about a month ago, John McCain's career was hitting the high point.  He had "...become a star again..." that I wished for him in my April 25th, 2007 Blog post.

But now, with his over-the-top personal attacks on Barack Obama -- and that's what they are -- he has gone into gutter politics, raising the question about whether he's really worthy of being on the same platform with Barack Obama.  He's embarrassing himself.  Sometimes American politics brings the best out in a person.  Sometimes, it brings out the worst. 

It's so sad to see this happen to a basically very good man, but too often those who are around a politician -- his consultants, his pollsters, and his hangers-on who want to secure power and influence for themselves -- bring the man on the top down to their level.  Nevertheless, John McCain has allowed this to happen to him, and he's to blame for letting himself be manipulated that way.

I still think John McCain is better than that.  Since he is the one responsible for his campaign, only he, in the next three or so weeks, can tell his handlers and backroom benchers to stop it, and let John McCain be John McCain.  If he did, he actually could stand a chance to win -- or at least leave this campaign with his head held high. 

My "Projections" For Tuesday, November 4th, 2008!

On this cool Seacoast Saturday night as I'm waiting for Saturday Night Live to start, I remembered that Election Day 2008 is just a month away.  Actually, my fellow NHInsider.com Blogger Chaz reminded me with his interesting list of "predictions" for November 4th.

There is still a month to go before Election Day, and that's a whole long time in politics.  But a month out can be fun trying to list the results.  Whether one is close or not isn't as much fun as just trying to see how things are shaping up.  I try not to be in the "prediction" market with lots of guesses.  I'd rather call this "expectations," or "projections." 

On October 7th, 2006, exactly a month before the General Election of that year, I Blogged right here in NHInsider.com about "The Perfect Storm" shaping up for Democrats.  This is exactly what  I wrote:

"Here in New Hampshire, Democrats have an excellent chance to have 3 of the 5 Governor's Councilors elected, perhaps even 4.  The State Senate well could result in 14 Democrats out of 24, possibly even 15 or 16.   Democrats in the NH House could pick up 70 seats - - 70 seats - - giving them a margin of 20 or so and allow them to elect the first Democrat House Speaker in nearly a Century."

I ended up being a little short in my "House" expectations -- we got about 20 more.  But I was pretty close, closer than most were expecting, especially those following the polls. I continued...  

"My betting right now would go with both Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes winning their races.  The US House could see a Democrat House Speaker and a Democrat majority in January.  I'm not quite so sure about the US Senate, but the Democrats could come within one or two seats there of having a majority."

All that was at a time, a month before the elections, when the polls were showing Republicans were doing fairly okay, and many people discounting Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes.  And not many were saying Democrats would take control of Congress.

I might have got lucky, but I wasn't just guessing.  The "enthusiasm level" can't be easily measured by polls, and there was a quake happening that year.  I think it will happen again in 2008.  

For this year, exactly a month before the General Election, I'll stick with my expectations that I came up with about four months ago in my Blogs:  Governor John Lynch wins big, Jeanne Shaheen wins, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes win, and Barack Obama-Joe Biden win New Hampshire by 7 percent.  Yes -- Obama he does get elected President with Biden as Vice President!

I think we will have 3 Democratic Governor's Councilors, and it could be 4.  I see 18 Democratic State Senators, and a House with 262 Democrats.  I know that's high, and it could be just 255 or so, but I'll stick with 262.

I arrived at those projections some months ago by taking the 2006 votes throughout the state, and adding a percentage for a Presidential election-year vote turnout, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates because of the amazing turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates due to high registrations of new voters, then adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates based on enthusiasm for our candidates and the intensity of the issues that will encourage people to turn out in extraordinary numbers -- Iraq, health care, the economy.

Maybe that's a bit too much optimism.  Perhaps not.  But those are the results we can see in the headlines of newspapers on Wednesday, November 5th if we do what needs to be done.

I don't see the intensity or enthusiasm that is on the Democratic side matched on the Republican side -- it looked for a bit that it might happen, but their Palin experiment is Failin'.  I think the issues of the need to get our brave troops out of Iraq, the need for health care access for all, the need for oil-free energy development, and the way Republicans in Washington have messed up the economy being the motivating factors in getting people to the polls on November 4th -- to vote Democrat.  

I'd like to hear what other NHInsider.com Bloggers and commentators think. 

Whoops -- time for Saturday Night Live.  Let's see what John McSame and Sarah Failin' are saying tonight.  (Okay, I'm biased, but it's fun.)