At the end of July 2009 PSNH instituted a rate increase of roughly 10.3%. It was the first major increase since the beginning of the year and reflects (according to PSNH) 2008 Ice storm recovery costs and other costs of doing business. What is more important is that PSNH has already filed a petition to adjust its effective rates on January 1, 2010.
While the cost of RGGI carbon credits have declined to a low $2.19 per ton, New Hampshire utilities have purchased over 4,758,000 allowances in the past 12 months for a total expense of over 15 million dollars. There is no evidence yet that generators have made a significant effort yet to recover those costs so requests for rate changes must be viewed with caution.
Additionally, the cost of oil has been creeping up over the past six months. The price per barrel has risen from 55 to 80 dollars a barrel. ($79.69 at close of trading on 11-18-2009.) The 12 month average projection is $92.00 per barrel which may reflect much higher prices over the average and I suspect 92.00 is low. Declining currency values impact real costs, so price shifts will continue upward as global suppliers adjust to compensate for lost value in the dollars used to buy and trade the commodity. This will add additional price pressure to home heating oils and gasoline, which will impact a broad range of consumer prices including those for electricity generation and delivery.
NEPGA, the New England Power Grid Association, appears to be a regional trade group of power generators in the North East, has expressed an interest in intervening in the upcoming rate hike negotiations. NEPGA supports competition among suppliers, cost effective development, and represents a form of trade protection—where development protects costs to consumers but does not risk collapsing price to protect generators.
NEPGA favors CO2 mitigation but on terms that keep a level playing field for all generators and provided they do not present any abrupt or long term impact on price. Their interest was best expressed in a report to the PUC earlier in the year regarding New Hampshire’s involvement in RGGI and other in state green energy targets.
The outcome that should be of greatest concern to New Hampshire policy makers in implementing RGGI is the affect that high electricity costs have in making business less willing to invest in new capital within the state or cause some existing capital to become economically obsolete. Energy has an influence that is disproportionate to its share of the state’s real gross domestic product largely because of consumers’ limited ability to adjust the amount of energy they use per unit of output over a short period of time.
Currently, the Milkin Institutes cost of doing business index ranks New Hampshire as the 12th most expensive place to do business in the nation based upon the fact that the average industrial electricity bill is the 5th highest in the nation.
Taken all together, along with evidence that New Hampshire already generates significant amounts of ‘clean’ energy from Nuclear and Hydro, it is essential that we develop the political will to reassess our participation in RGGI and the implementation of other strategies that drive up costs. Our legislators have ignored existing nuclear and hydro capacity while focusing on development and the outside purchase of more expensive alternatives with poorer reliability and higher costs to meet arbitrary targets whose very real impact will be to reduce emissions—not through new technology and cleaner energy—but by driving businesses and employers away from the state to avoid excessive energy costs.
If that was the plan, it will work, but at what cost?
This brings us back to the opening paragraph. PSNH raised rates roughly 10.3% on August 1st 2009 and is already looking forward to negotiating another increase on January first. Outstanding costs include requirements that 25% of capacity come from renewable sources (excluding nuclear and Hydro) and the cost of buying carbon credits that cannot be traded away as in a traditional cap and trade market scheme. So those costs will be crammed down on rate payers.
Alternative energy is always something we nee to consider, but it being advanced solely on a partisan political will that contradicts the facts on the ground. We don’t need to do it all now, if at all. It favors a select class that supports one party—the one pushing the policy. It will cost consumers and business more for no conceivable benefit unless that is the real goal.
There’s nothing wrong with conservation. We should always be looking toward future alternatives. But it should happen as a reflection of real need and the best interests of the people. Not through layers of government mandates that raise costs and force suppliers to ignore what works in favor of what's trendy and politically expedient to those with the power to force it on us.
PSNH and other providers will simply respond to those mandated costs--created by the State. But we are the ones who are paying.